Since the October ceasefire, humanitarian access and food deliveries into Gaza have increased, easing the acute crisis that left large swathes of the territory facing famine-level conditions. Yet a new assessment by the UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) finds the situation remains dangerously fragile: roughly 500,000 people — about one in four Gazans — were living in emergency conditions last month, and more than 100,000 households were still enduring the highest classification of food insecurity, IPC Phase 5, described as “catastrophic” at the household level.

The IPC’s latest analysis, assembled from UN and other publicly available data, indicates notable improvements in nutrition and supplies since the ceasefire. It stops short, however, of declaring the crisis resolved. While no areas of Gaza were classified as being in “famine” at the time of the report, acute malnutrition rates remained at critical levels in Gaza City and at serious levels in Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis. Projections in the report estimate the number of people in the most extreme conditions could drop to as few as 1,900 by April — but analysts warned that any renewed hostilities could rapidly reverse progress and put the entire Strip back at risk of famine.

Israel has robustly disputed aspects of the IPC’s findings. The foreign ministry and COGAT, the Israeli military authority that manages crossings into Gaza, accused the IPC of relying on incomplete or distorted data and of not reflecting the full scope of humanitarian shipments. COGAT said weekly food-convoy figures into Gaza exceeded what the UN had specified as needed and denied allegations that Israel was blocking critical winter or medical supplies, or withholding drinking water.

The IPC responded that its analysis used publicly available data from UN sources and from COGAT itself. The classification flagged major structural drivers of food insecurity across Gaza: restricted humanitarian access during months of intensive fighting, the displacement of more than 730,000 people, and the widespread destruction of livelihoods and agricultural land — more than 96% of Gaza’s cropland was reported destroyed or inaccessible.

Humanitarian agencies say the easing of the blockade that Israel imposed in March — and partially relaxed in May amid international pressure — has permitted larger volumes of food and other assistance into Gaza since the ceasefire. UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, welcomed the IPC’s finding that no areas were officially in famine but cautioned that living conditions across the Strip remain “catastrophic,” a situation compounded by deteriorating winter weather and the near-total collapse of local services.

Diplomatic negotiations remain delicate. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the second phase of the US-brokered peace plan — entailing a further Israeli troop pullback and the disarmament of Hamas — is close, though he acknowledged unresolved, sensitive issues remain. Humanitarian actors stress that sustained, expanded, and predictable access for both humanitarian and commercial goods is essential to prevent backsliding and to stabilize civilian food security.

As Gaza moves from immediate collapse toward conditional stabilization, the IPC’s report underscores a precarious balance: measurable gains in aid delivery and nutrition, shadowed by persistent vulnerability for tens of thousands and the continued threat that renewed violence would plunge the population back into catastrophe. Humanitarian agencies called on all parties to guarantee consistent access and to protect civilians and aid operations to avoid a reversal of the fragile progress.